Gold Rebounds Above $4,000: Can Dollar Weakness Outweigh Fed Hike Bets?

Gold\u2019s rebound gathered pace on Wednesday 4 November, when it gained about 3% in one session and reclaimed $4,000 an ounce after the US midterm results pushed the dollar and Treasury yields lower, according to FXStreet. Prices were near $4,065 in early Asian trade on Thursday, Mitrade reported. The bounce follows a one-year low near $3,870 on 30 October, which we covered in Why Is Gold Falling?. The harder question is whether it can last while markets still expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December.

Published 5 November 2026. Prices and probabilities were reported between 3 and 5 November and change quickly, and data vendors quote slightly different levels. Analysis for education only, not trading advice.

Gold This Week: A Timeline

Date	What happened	Source
Fri 30 Oct	Gold hit a one-year low near $3,870 and slipped below $4,000 as a hot PCE inflation reading backed December hike bets	FX Leaders
Mon 2 Nov	Gold rose more than 2% to $3,954.41 as oil fell	FX Leaders
Tue 3 Nov	US job openings of 7.52 million lifted December hike odds to 79% from 72%; gold held near $3,920	Vantage
Wed 4 Nov	Gold jumped about 3% from a low of $3,919 to above $4,000, with a six-day high of $4,070	FXStreet, FXEmpire
Thu 5 Nov	Around $4,065 in early Asian trade	Mitrade

What Is Driving the Rebound

A Weaker Dollar and Lower Yields

Gold is priced in dollars, so a softer dollar makes it cheaper for buyers using other currencies, as FXStreet noted. On 4 November the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to near 4.90%, and the Dollar Index later hit its lowest level since late September. We explain the election reaction in our companion article, Democrats Win Congress: How the US Midterm Results Hit the Dollar.

Cheaper Oil, Lower Inflation Worries

Gold has traded this autumn as an inflation-and-rates story. FX Leaders notes that it fell sharply from its January record as higher oil prices and persistent inflation revived expectations of Fed tightening. Cheaper crude has therefore helped. Gold rose roughly 2% on Monday as oil slid about 8%, according to Vantage, and it rallied again on Wednesday as oil dropped. Mitrade’s market wrap linked an oil slide of more than 7% to US-Iran talks.

Our analysis. This is our reading of the recent pattern, not a rule. It can break if oil rebounds or inflation data surprise, so headlines from the Middle East remain a swing factor for gold.

The Fed Is Still the Main Headwind

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two officials voting for a hike. Futures pricing reported on 4 and 5 November implied roughly a 79% to 83% chance of a December increase. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. The next FOMC decision is on 9 December.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching

Level	Why it matters	Source
$3,870	Area of the 30 October one-year low	FX Leaders
$3,920	23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop; tested on election day	FX Leaders
$4,000	Psychological level reclaimed on 4 November	FXStreet
$4,075	20-day moving average and trend resistance	FXEmpire
$4,098 to $4,100	Next resistance; TradingKey reported gold breaking above $4,100	FXEmpire, TradingKey
$4,155	Higher resistance from a series of lower daily highs	FXEmpire

These levels come from third-party technical analysis and vary between data vendors, so treat them as reference points rather than signals. FXStreet’s technical outlook still described the broader trend as downward, with buyers gaining momentum. Forecasts have also drifted lower this year: Vantage reports that HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,490 an ounce on 1 October.

What Would Change the Picture

Gold’s rebound would look more durable if the dollar keeps sliding while December hike odds fall, because that combination lowers the opportunity cost of holding it. It would look more fragile if payrolls or inflation data lift hike pricing again, or if oil rebounds, since either would revive the inflation-and-rates pressure that drove gold to its one-year low. A single-session gain of this size, the biggest since mid-August according to Mitrade, does not by itself change the broader downtrend that FXStreet described.

Three Scenarios Around Friday’s Payrolls Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October payrolls on Friday 6 November at 8:30 am ET (13:30 GMT, 19:15 in Nepal). Consensus is near +65,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, as shown in our NFP preview. The scenarios below are our analysis of how gold could respond, not forecasts.

Scenario	Effect on Fed pricing	Possible gold reaction
Stronger than expected	December hike odds rise; yields and the dollar firm	Pressure on gold; the $4,000 and $3,920 areas come back into focus
In line	Pricing little changed	Gold tends to follow oil, the dollar and yields
Weaker than expected	Hike odds fall; yields drop	Supports gold; $4,075 to $4,100 resistance comes into play

What to Monitor Next

• US nonfarm payrolls on Friday and Thursday’s initial jobless claims at 13:30 GMT.
• Fed speakers and any shift in the CME FedWatch probability for December.
• Oil and US-Iran headlines, given gold’s recent sensitivity to crude.
• The Dollar Index and the 10-year yield, which carried Wednesday’s move.
• The 9 December FOMC meeting, which comes with updated projections.

Track release times on the HamroForex Economic Calendar. For earlier context, see our gold price forecast from October and the Fed decision analysis.

Managing Risk in a Volatile Gold Market

Gold moved roughly $150 between Wednesday’s low of $3,919 and the high near $4,070. A wide range means a stop-loss measured in dollars requires a smaller lot size. Size positions before you enter with the Risk Management Calculator, which supports XAU/USD, and use the Currency Correlation tool before holding gold alongside USD pairs, since one dollar view can sit behind several trades. Avoid carrying larger-than-normal size through the payroll release unless you can accept the loss.

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